Ahead of the Curve - A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles

Ahead of the Curve - A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles
Joseph H. Ellis
Harvard Business School Press, 2005
HB3730.E55 2005

Key Notes:
1. Four stages of economic downturns:

Stage 1: The peak
Stage 2: A modest slowing
Stage 3: Intensifying worry
Stage 4: The advent of recession

2. The leading indicators

Consumer spending -> Capital spending -> Employment

3. Factors affecting consumer spending:

a) Personal Income
b) Personal wealth, or non-income spending power.

c) Consumer Confidence Index (published by The Conference Board) & the Index of Consumer Sentiment (compiled by the University of Michigan Survey Research Center) may not predict real consumer spending. Past records have not shown any evidence that the two do.