The Peak Hong Kong: Then and Now

The peak is one of the most popular tourist spot in Hong Kong.  It represents the prosperity of the former British colony.  Now let's take a look how it was like in the past.

Looking down from the Peak, we see low-rise colonial buildings everywhere.  At a quick glance, you might mistake this Pearl of the Orient as somewhere in Europe. 

Looking down from the Peak now, skyscrapers are crowded all around the beautiful Victoria Harbour.  The buildings are modern, chic and elegant.  Nobody could imagine it was no more than a small little fishing port in the southern tip of mainland China.  The colonial style old buildings are gone together with their British masters.

The mist covering the city is unmissable, signifying this modern city is another victim of uncontrolled urban development, at the expenses of permanent damage to mother nature.  Hong Kongers like to blame mainland Chinese for the pollution, accusing mainland Chinese of not punishing those pollutant producing industries.  However, the fact is many such industries are from Hong Kong!  Well, whatever it is, let's all love our mother Earth.

Shanghai Stock Exchange Index Update

I talked about the descending triangle formation on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index chart on Sunday in this entry.  I was wondering when we would know whether we would have a break up, or a break down then, today, we have the answer.

There is a long black bar decisively penetrating the 2475 point base of the triangle.  To forecast the extent SSE will drop, I again mentioned if 2475 is broken, we should expect a drop of about 200 points to 2275.  We already have one expectation fulfilled, now let's see whether our next expectation is also met. 

Good investing. 

Guangzhou: Then and Now

Here is a photo of Dr Sun Yat-sen's Memorial Hall in Guangzhou (Canton), China.  During my days in Guangzhou, this memorial hall was a 'sacred' or sensitive place, as it was in memory of the founding father of Republic of China, which fled to Taiwan after the Nationalist government lost the civil war. 

This was then:

And it is now:

The structure didn't change much, but do you notice the absence of Dr Sun's statue in the 'then' photo?  Another less obvious point is the quality of air.  In the 'then' photo, although in black & white, the sky appeared to be clear, while in the 'now' photo, the hall is covered in a light mist, a result of the poor air quality in Guangzhou.  Blue sky is something hard to come by these days in Guangzhou. 

And then I found another photo/painting of the same scene.  Judging by the Japanese characters written on this photo/painting, it seems like the painting was done during Japanese occupation period (Oct 21st, 1938 - Sept, 1945).  Dr Sun's statue was not there either.  It will be interesting to know when they put up the statue. 

Just a brief introduction about this landmark.  The memorial hall is in memory of, of course, Dr. Sun Yat-sen, who helped over-turned the Qing Dynasty and established the first republic on Chinese soil, the Republic of China in 1912, and became the very first President of the republic.  The hall has an octagonal shaped dome with no supporting pillars, very much like the octagonal dome of Florence duomo.

The construction of the hall stared in 1929, and completed in 1931. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Index

Looking at the chart of Shanghai Stock Exchange, I can't help noticing a small descending triangle formation.

The range is between 2495 and 2695 points.  The triangle started in early May, and now is in its final stage.  A breakdown will see the SSE down to 2295. 

Uber Contrarian Trade: National Bank of Greece

Europe Union is engulfed in one of the deepest crisis it has ever seen since its creation, Greece is right in the epic centre of this crisis of national debt.  Inevitably, the biggest lender in Greece - National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), has seen its share price beaten down from a high of $8.37 in Oct last year to just a dime away from its March 2009 down of $2.09 (See chart below). 

The stock is much hated, and bad news just came out that the European bank stress test showed NBG may have to raise up to 5.3 billion euros to recapitalize if the crisis deepens (ie. Greek government defaults on its debt).   The stock is currently trading at around 4x its 2009 earnings, and expect to go up to around 9x its 2010 earnings due to a fall in its earnings. 

The stock fell close to its March 2009 low and bounced back, and now is again on its way to test its March 2009 low.  If the price bounces back successfully from the March 2009 low, then it will be worth considering buying some.  The bank is actually in not so bad shape, 46% of its revenue came from its Turkish operation last year.  Turkey's economy condition is better than Greece, and ranks higher (61st) than Greece (71st) in terms of transparency in banking industry.  The bank's total holding of Greek Government Bond (GGB) is about 19 billion euros. 

Looking at the chart, you may notice the volume peaked on April 27th, 2010 (56 millions), then subsequently contracts to a low of about only 2 million shares per day.  The volume contraction accompanying the price fall is a good sign that the bottom might be close. 

If the stock breaks down from its March 2009 low of $2.09, and continues its downward path, it will be interesting to see when the reversal, or the bottom, will be hit. 

If you buy into this counter, it will be an uber contrarian trade and the potential return may be rewarding too. 

We will re-visit this counter a month from now and see how it has developed. 

Charting the Future of Silver

I am looking at the chart of iShare Silver ETF (NYSE: SLV) today, and find something interesting. 

Looking at the 'big' picture, which is about 3 years data on SLV, there appears to be a big ascending triangle.  The top of the triangle is at ~$19, the base is at around $8.48.  This BIG ascending triangle is still ascending, but there is no break out yet.  Based on Guppy's theory, if the ascending triangle breaks out, we can expect a price movement of $19 - $8.48=$10.52 up.  That is a best case scenario.

Inside the BIG triangle, there is also a small ascending triangle.  The top is the same $19, the base is at $14.70.  So if the price breaks out, we can expect $19 - $14.70 = $4.3 up.  It is not as good as the $10 up, but still not too bad. 

How will SLV price move in the next days?  I don't know, but I will monitor closely whether it can break through the $19 resistance and advance toward $23, or even $29.  Well, time will tell.    

Disclaimer

The ideas expressed in this blog should not be construed as an enticement to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

洞悉先机

书名：洞悉先机
作者：曾渊沧


This is a book authored by a well-known Singaporean stock investor, Dr. Chan.  Dr Chan graduated from Nanyang University with major in mathmatics, and received his master's from University of Lancaster & PhD from Unviersity of Manchester.  He later moved to Hong Kong and became a memeber of the teaching staff at the City Unversity of Hong Kong. 

Dr Chan came back to Singapore to give public talks on investment many times, with tickets selling at as high a price as S$120.  His many 'predictions' somehow turned out to be true later.  He is regarded as an investment guru.

In this book, he shared with the readers his growing up story, how he started in stocks, and his philosophy in investment.  Great minds think alike.  Dr Chan, and many other successful investors, share the same idea that in order to be successful in investment, you have to first face yourself and settle your psychology.  Without that, you will NEVER be successful. 

Dr Chan also introduces to the readers some of the indicators he uses for his investment decisions, shares the thoughts he had when he made some of the most important investment decisions which significantly changed his life. 

You can borrow the book from the library to read.  The book is published in traditional Chinese. 

Kinkakuji: Then and Now

Kinkakuji (Temple of the Golden Pavilion) is one of Japan's most famous Buddhist temples, not for its Buddhist teachings but for its magnificent architecture of the Golden Pavilion.  The Golden Pavilion, sitting right next to a calm pond, glittering under the bright sun, has charmed hundreds of thousands of visitors each year. 

Let's see an old photo of the golden pavilion.  It looked really run down.  The golden surface didn't glitter, probably because there was no sun.

And here is how it looks in modern days.  The pond is clean, the gold is glittering.  Mmh, now is better :)